ICDS – ICDS

Aims to advance the transatlantic community’s strategic thinking on the security challenges facing the Baltic-Nordic region, from armed or cyber attacks to threats against social cohesion and energy security.

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Publications

Hacking for Influence

Piret Pernik

 Piret Pernik

Cyber capabilities display attractive features for nation-states’ covert influence activities in the grey zone between war and peace. They can be used to support objectives of information warfare in several ways: collecting intelligence, doxing, infecting devices and webpages to spread propaganda, social media bots, and Distributed Denial of Service attacks.

This paper focuses on cyber-attacks conducted by authoritarian states and their proxies in support of influence activities against liberal democracies. Russia’s practice confirms that cyber-attacks are attractive tools for authoritarian states to project national power and support other political influence activities. Cyber espionage seems to have strategic effects, whilst low-end cyber-attacks tend to produce tactical and operational effects; however, together with psychological operations they can have strategic effects on national security. Cyber-attacks can be used for the purpose of deterrence and coercion, but a better theoretical framework for cyberspace should be developed to explain their strategic impact. It is suggested that quantitative and qualitative methods, and operational and strategic level analysis be combined to provide for a better understanding of this fast-evolving domain and how the authoritarian states are exploiting it.

Download: Hacking for Influence - Foreign Influence Activities and Cyber-Attacks (PDF)

Blog

watch Responding to “the Most Destructive and Costly Cyberattack in History”

Eight months after the NotPetya ransomware/wipeware disabled 10% of computers in Ukraine, and inflicted financial costs amounting to 0,5% of Ukraine’s...

click here 23.02.2018 / Read more

Syria is Getting Hotter

On December 11th 2017, five days after he announced his expected intention to run for the fourth time for Russia’s presidency, Vladimir Putin visited...

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Spy Swaps Make a Comeback in “Intelligence Culture”

As is common in intelligence affairs, the people who know cannot comment. But even the public coverage of recent spy swaps between Estonia and Russia...

Events

Estonian National Defence 2022

On 22 February, ICDS was pleased to host a presentation and discussion of Estonia’s medium-term defence development plan.

Russia’s “allies” Report Presentation

ICDS presented on 14 February 2018 the report Russia’s “allies”, which was written by fellow researcher Kalev Stoicescu.
ICDS – ICDS
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