ICDS – ICDS

Aims to advance the transatlantic community’s strategic thinking on the security challenges facing the Baltic-Nordic region, from armed or cyber attacks to threats against social cohesion and energy security.

Photo:Robert Reisman

Publications

Boosting the Deterrent Effect of Allied Enhanced Forward Presence

At the Warsaw Summit in July 2016, NATO allies decided to establish an enhanced forward presence (eFP) on the territory of the Baltic states and Poland “to unambiguously demonstrate, as part of our overall posture, Allies' solidarity, determination, and ability to act by triggering an immediate Allied response to any aggression”. The implementation of this historic decision has now resulted in the first-ever stationing of combat-ready troops from other Allied nations in the Baltic region.

While the eFP deployment is colloquially referenced using Cold War terminology, such as “tripwire” approach, it is significantly different from the previous NATO experience and therefore has no direct precedents on which to draw. It is on a relatively low tactical level, and the possible threat scenarios today are more complex than the Cold War equivalents, which brings additional political challenges. In implementing the eFP concept, questions about how to signal the credibility of deterrence and how the eFP battlegroups would operate in crisis situations, especially prior to activation of Article 5 of Washington Treaty, are central.

This policy paper first addresses three precedents from NATO’s Cold War experience: the Central European theatre, West Berlin and Norway. By focusing on the deployment to Estonia, it will go on to describe the nature of the eFP as it is currently planned and executed, and address a number of issues related to its implementation. It fleshes out the differences between the old and the contemporary approach, addresses the current challenges, and charts the way forward to inform policymakers and the public at large how to increase the employability of the force and the overall credibility of the eFP-based deterrent.

Download: Boosting the Deterrent Effect of Allied Enhanced Forward Presence (PDF)

Blog

The Risk of Reopening History

Reflections on the 2017 Lennart Meri Conference.

What to Do with North Korea?

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) is not your typical diplomatic partner to communicate with. The efforts taken in the course of...

A New Era of EU-NATO Cooperation: How to Make the Best of a Marriage of Necessity

The ICDS fresh study on EU-NATO cooperation is explained by the authors, the ICDS research fellows, Kristi Raik and Pauli Järvenpää. They are...

Events

Cyber Security Capacity in the Eastern Partnership Countries

On 16-19 May ICDS Research Fellow Piret Pernik conducted interviews with Georgian government officials in order to assess the cyber security capacity...

ICDS Chief Executive Participates in the International StratCom Summit 2017

ICDS Chief Executive Dmitri Teperik participated in the international StratCom Summit 2017, which was organised by the European Values Think-Tank in...
ICDS – ICDS
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