International Centre for Defence and Security

In response to the continuing threat from Russia and to US demands that they should assume primary responsibility for their own conventional deterrence and defence, NATO’s European Allies and Canada have set out to build “a stronger Europe in a stronger NATO”.

Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia’s intelligence ecosystem has redirected its priorities toward supporting the war effort while adapting to a more constrained and contested operational and strategic environment.

The security of the Nordic and Baltic countries rests heavily on the transatlantic alliance and the rules-based international order. In recent years, however, these two pillars of foreign policy have weakened and become harder to reconcile, forcing the small states in the region into an uncomfortable, at times almost impossible, balancing act.

The 20th Annual Baltic Conference on Defence (ABCD), organised by the International Centre for Defence and Security and the Estonian Ministry of Defence, will take place on 22-23 September 2026 in Tallinn, Estonia.

While the US is keen to continue its diplomatic efforts to bring peace to Ukraine, both Kyiv and Moscow prepare for another winter of war, expected to be more exhausting than the previous ones.

In 2026, the effects of the war against Ukraine have reached most Russians for the first time.

Germany's response to Russian hybrid threats has become institutionalised since 2022 due to emergent evidence revealing a sustained campaign against German society and democracy. Officials now treat the issue more seriously and consider offensive countermeasures.